Intentions to smoke cigarettes among never-smoking US middle and high school electronic cigarette users
This study looked at the relationship between trying vaping and intentions to smoke. The data was taken from the 2011 to 2013 US National Youth Tobacco Surveys.
Basically, it’s a proxy to a “gateway” finding. If never-smoking teens who vape are more interested in smoking, it could mean that vaping caused the increased desire to smoke.
What It Found
Intentions to smoke were higher in teens who’d ever used e-cigarettes or who’d vaped in the past 30 days.
This led to headlines such as: “Adolescents who use e-cigarettes are much more likely to try tobacco, CDC says”
What’s Wrong With it?
Imagine a teen who said he definitely wouldn’t smoke in the next year, but just said he’d “probably not” smoke if offered a cigarette by a close friend. After all, peer pressure could affect him. He would be seen as having “intentions” to smoke in this study.
To clarify: saying “probably not” rather than “definitely not” to either of two questions was counted as having “intentions to smoke.”
But even if “probably not” wasn’t classed as “yes,” there are still problems. Who would be more open to the possibility of smoking in the next year: the teen who tries something a lot like smoking or the one who doesn’t? The answer is obvious. It doesn’t make vaping the cause of the “intention.”
Analysis of the Study
Brad Rodu: In the CDC-FDA e-cigarette study, “probably not” is the new “yes”
Carl V. Phillips: CDC refines their lies about kids and e-cigarettes
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